Why Do People Leave? Strickland Vs Vibinc

It has taken me forever to get to this post. Sorry but I have been very busy for months now and this post was a bit labor intensive. I felt the need to put together the following charts because of a recent editorial by Councilman Strickland arguing against a property tax and a post by Vibinc . To get started, I broke the city up into the general larger neighborhoods that most people can identify. These neighborhood boundaries combined census block groups. This way it is easy to tract demographic changes over time. I included the area Southeast Memphis even though it falls outside the city because so much has happened there over the past couple decades. Hopefully, for a lot of people, these following charts give context to the changes they have seen over the years. For others may be it will help them understand what has happened. Blue bars are population increases, Red bars population declines. This chart shows the actual populations of each area in 1990 (blue), 2000 (green), and 2010 (red). Now lets look at the types of populations and their movements over the last two decades, starting with the 1990's. Purple is a population increase, brown is a population decline. Next are the 2000's. Blue is an increase, red in a decrease. One of the big drivers of population movements is economic opportunity. The following chart shows the change in employed people living in each neighborhood. Strange how the change in the number of employed people living in a neighborhood mirrors the change in owner occupied housing. Of course owner occupied housing greatly affects property values and tax revenues. Green is an increase, yellow is a decrease. The next chart is of foreclosures. To be honest, the political classes of Memphis and Shelby County have not come to grip with the impact foreclosures have had on citizens. They are seeing it in the most crass way in the property tax revenue declines that are sparking much of these budget season battles. Voters should be pissed because the data was there, starting in the early 2000's, showing yearly increases in foreclosures, especially in minority neighborhoods. This has caused intense wealth destruction in the black community. Don't take my word for it. Here is an NYT article from 2010. Here's an article with a handy chart showing wealthy destruction. The chart below shows Median Household Income adjusted to 2010 dollars. Keep this thought in mind. "Why isn't income declines and wealth destruction all politicians talk about in this town?" So lets get back to where tax payers (voters) are, since property taxes are as much a political question as a budgetary one. The next two charts are high turnout white voters, under 40 years old and over 55. For high turnout white voters, age doesn't really affect where you live, except there aren't any under 40 white voters in Frayser, Raleigh, or Parkway Village/Hickory Hill. It is way different for high turnout black voters. Age almost dictates where you live. Black voters over 55 live mainly in the core of city and Whitehaven. Under 40 year old black voters go east, especially if they have economic opportunities. Did all these high turnout black voters under 40 move east because of property tax avoidance or are they trying to send their kids to better schools, escape crime, and live in better housing stock? (Schools, crime, housing stock can all be bundled together under the banner of poverty/economic opportunity) You can probably guess I take the side the data points too. Therefore, Vibinc wins in a knockout.