Fearless Polar Mayor's Race Prediction

I like to do predictions on big elections. That way you can judge if I know much of anything about politics and if this blog is worth reading. Without further delay, my mayor's race prediction Strickland- 39% I know of no example in Memphis political history where if given a viable white candidate, whites still voted for a black candidate. That trend continues. Whites vote overwhelmingly for Strickland. He also picks up a similar percentage of black vote as AC gets of the white vote. Collins- 29% Most black voters can’t stand AC. That's how Collins gets 29%. Simple as that. Nice movie trailer campaign ad. Williams- 8% AC- 22% Oh my, what can you say. The collapse of his support in 4 years is mind numbing. How you can go from 65% of vote to 22% without a video of him spiking puppies like Michael Vick or the FBI finding stacks of money in his freezer is a true feat. If you wrote a manual about how to succeed as mayor, it would be 1 line. "Do the exact opposite of everything AC has done between 2011 and 2015." AC has a unique ability to inflict maximum political damage on himself, whether it be when he does do something right or wrong. That’s what weakness and indecision does to a politician, getting the worst of both sides. Months ago, I told people AC would not win re-election for two reasons. He had a class problem with black voters and race problem with white voters. For the race problem, see what I wrote above about Strickland. For the class problem, what black constituency is better off now than 4 years ago. The Jack & Jill set. There are only like 100 of them. As the letter to the editor in CA pointed out, he has engaged in nepotism and rewarded those loyal to him. How about Deidre Malone’s nice PR $880,000 contract for MPD body cameras? Seriously, body cameras need an almost million dollar PR campaign. Pays to be AC’s campaign manager. This is just the scandal of this weekend. There have been so many, that this one barely gets noticed. Throw in all the creative class junk that high jacked the administration's thinking, along with endless incompetency, you have a political collapse that will haunt the black community for a generation. AC has been the perfect black politician for the Big Business community to use to destroy black political power, first at the county level and then at the municipal level. In AC's wake, is political disorganization, lack of resources, and apathy of black voters. When I spoke to folks months ago, they really couldn't wrap their head around the fact that AC's base were white voters and when they leave him for Strickland, there wouldn't be enough support by black voters to carry him to victory. The morning after election day will be interesting to see the city's reaction.