Will the SCDP Reorganization Be Fair?

I was looking at the delegate allocations calculated by Del and Myra. Since I’m the map guy, I figured I’d illustrate both with maps. Here they are.




Del’s calculation of delegates is 447 and Myra is 581. That’s a 134 delegate difference and that’s a lot. Thinking about the November election, using the votes cast for Bredesen seem problematic. He wasn’t really running against a serious candidate and he had high approval ratings from republicans. Many voters that voted for Corker may have crossed party lines and voted for Bredesen. Perhaps a more accurate picture of Democratic voters may have been using Jr’s vote totals. What also bothers me is the turnout levels. In the county there are very big precincts with lots of voters. (Here is a map of total voters. Blue is highest, red lowest.)




But when you look at turnout percentages from the November elections, it was generally lower in the much of these big precincts in the county. While precincts in the city performed well, especially along Jackson, Lamar, and downtown.



Now these mega precincts deserve representation on the Executive Committee but they don’t perform in democratic primaries. Here is the primary turnout from this past spring. Hell, we don't even run canidates out there in many races.



Here is the other thing that makes the allotment of delegates using Bredesen votes troublesome. Look at the 2005 Party reorganization. (The number following the house district is the number of people that attended the party caucus (first day of reorganization) and the second number is the number of delegates.
83-28, 17
84-31, 25
85-37, 28
86-24, 13
87-15, 11
88-16, 14
89-56, 21
90-59, 29
91-22, 16
92-71, 23
93-42, 18
95-19, 8
96-15, 5
97-10, 8
98-22, 20
99-24, 10

Here’s the number of delegates and executive committee seats these districts get in 2007
95-39, 5
96-32, 4
97-34, 4
98-37, 4
Compare these to the number of people that showed up for the first day for these districts in 2005.
85-37
89-56
90-59
92-71
93-42

In 2007, district 85 gets the same number of seats on the excom as district 95. District 89 has 1 less seat than 96. District 90 & 93 have the same as 97 and 98. It appears it would be much easier to find a handle full of people from those big precincts in the county than mobilizing a brigade in 89 or 92.

I guess the question is, did using the Bredesen vote totals give a possible disportionate level of representation to districts that normally don't perform well for Democrats?

Finally, here is a map showing the where the delegates from the 2005 convention (dots [Shame, shame, shame on some of you delegates. You didn't live in the district you voted in.]) listed their addresses and the new delegate allocation by precinct for 2007.