You Can Call Him the Weather Maker

Last Thursday I was hanging out at Drinking Liberally. Much of the talk was about the Marrero/Spence race. Taking a step back and looking at the changes that have happened in the past year and half, it is kind of amazing the degree of change that has happened in the local political environment. Bowers is gone. The Fords have almost completely been vanquished by their own hands. The Herenton faction is riding high and Cohen was elected to Congress. The later events are of particular interest.

Cohen’s election has come at a cost to white Democrats. Cohen broke the unspoken agreement of white democrats holding seats like Senate District 30 and House District 93. With that agreement now gone, a candidate like Spence is going after Marrero. Some may have thought with Cohen’s backing, she was a shoe in for the seat. With early voting over, less than 350 people voted. Spence is running radio ads, robo-calling, and has signs around the district. All I’ve seen of Marrero is a few yard signs. It doesn’t seem like either candidate is doing much door to door canvassing. Late Thursday, we’ll know if Cohen has any political coattails.

The collapse of the Fords has contributed greatly to the ascendancy of the Herenton faction. That faction no longer is content to just have local elected positions and is moving on to state level offices after doing especially well with County Commission elections. District 30 was just the first spot open and some of the bloggers think 93 is next. But I don’t think the movement against these seats is driven by race or political ideology. The Herenton faction is doing this simply because it can. Why not consolidate power when you have the political forces to do it? I’m sure Herenton will push on the City Council as well. By the end of Herenton’s 16th year, he will be the sole, political weather maker. It’s Herenton’s world and we’re all just squirrels looking for a nut.

The question becomes, what are white democrats going to do? District 30 may be lost by Friday. Chumney’s city council position will be gone because she is going to unsuccessfully run for mayor. Mike Kernell will come up in 2008 again and he’ll probably face a primary challenger back by the Herenton machine. That will leave 89. One of Del Gill’s biggest complaints has been the over-representation of white democrats, especially on the Executive Committee. With the Herenton’s consolidation, I don’t think Del is going to have to worry too much about it anymore, aside from MSDIA. (Also, turnout in predominantly white areas was lower than in predominantly black areas in the November 2006 election.) So where does this leave Cohen? In 2008 he may be continuing his service in Congress at the pleasure of Herenton.