Cohen vs Herenton: The Row on the River

So the 9th congressional race is already starting to warm-up. Let me be the first to say I'm really surprised Herenton is actually running. I thought he was just politicizing the grand jury process. I got a feeling it is going to turnout like Michael Jordan's final return to the Wizards. Not so good and tarnishing his reputation. Since he does seem to be running I thought I'd throw in my 2 cents about the race.
1) Cohen should be happy Herenton didn't get indicted. Herenton would have made the race all about his victimization. The government is after him because he's black yada yada yada. That now is a minor talking point for Herenton.
2) The race isn't about issues. If it is just personalities, this where Herenton wants it to be, but that doesn't mean Herenton would win (His message sounds anachronistic since the elections of Obama and Wharton). It just gives him the best shot at winning. The last 2 years for Herenton were rough. MSARC, the animal shelter, the rise of blight, constant crises and scandal, and Herenton exhausting his base. Cohen should point out Herenton did a decent job 10 YEARS AGO, but has been an ever increasing failure the last decade, even admitting he wasn't interested in the job of mayor the last few years. This leads to point 3.
3) The generational divide in black Memphis voters. Herenton's core base are older black folks. They remember what it was like before 1991 and how big a deal it was for the first black mayor to be elected. This is my reference to the above map. In the urban core of Memphis, the demographics of the black community are skewed. Lots of older people (55+) or younger people (under 20). In 2007 Herenton did his best in these areas of the city. His weakness surfaced with black voters under 40. These folks have families and moved out to areas like Frayser (not so much in the 9th), Raleigh, and Hickory Hill. They also live in more integrated neighborhoods with higher incomes. Herenton underperformed in many of these precincts by 15 to 20 percentage points. Over the past 2 years, Herenton's base has gotten older (smaller) while he has gotten more erratic and unproductive as mayor. It will be interesting to see how a younger, predominantly black political organization like New Path handles the emergence of this generational divide. They aren't going to support Herenton, but they may also try to hedge their bet and not endorse Cohen either.
4) Herenton is entirely on defense. Cohen has inroads to Herenton territory and a huge fundraising advantage. Herenton will try to milk as much free press as possible. Cohen is going push on the Hickory Hill and Raleigh fronts, target areas in Herenton's urban core, and attack the higher income areas of Whitehaven. That's a lot of defense to be playing on multiple fronts on your "home" turf. Plus, Cohen's already done this and against the exact same campaign narrative.
5) Herenton only has one line of attack. "I'm black, he's white". Every attack by Herenton should always be redirected back onto one of his failures of the last few years and highlighting what Cohen has successfully done. In addition, Cohen should be campaigning for Randy Wade non-stop. There is a proxy war that will tell a lot about the congressional race, Wade (Cohen) vs French (Herenton) for Sheriff. If Wade does well, Cohen will do well.
6) Cohen says something dumb. Cohen needs to stay aggressive and be a smart counter puncher to Herenton's attacks. Herenton's used to bullying people into submission. Cohen has to stay calm and not get flustered into a gaffe. Herenton will get more and more erratic as Cohen stands-up to him and keeps the pressure on. This fits back into the Cohen narrative of Herenton being a shadow of himself and from a past era.