Job and Population Migrations in Memphis & Shelby County

A couple weeks ago, I found this new map program by the Census Bureau. Some of the data on this map site shows jobs in 2008 and you can compare those numbers to 2002. More importantly, the site told the percent of Memphians employed in each zip code. This data is useful in understanding various things like change in commute times and population migrations.

This first map shows total jobs in 2002. You can see the zip codes with jobs are Downtown, Midtown, the Airport area, and East Memphis.




Here are total jobs in 2008. You see declines in Downtown (38103:5,800), Midtown (38104:5,900), and the Airport Area (38118:2,500). Jobs increased in East Memphis (38120:6,700), Bartlett (38134:5,000), Collierville (38017:5,000), and along I-40 around Lakeland and Arlington (38133:4,700).



This is a map that shows the percentage of Memphians employed in each zip code in 2002. Inside the 240 beltway and Hickory Hill had high rates of employing Memphians.



Look at the changes that happened in 6 years. Employment rates of Memphians inside the 240 beltway declined as well as in Hickory Hill. The percentage of Memphians employed in zip codes in Shelby County decline in every zip code except 38139 (Germantown).



Here is the change in total jobs from 2002 to 2008. Everything in the yellow to red range of the spectrum is a decline in jobs. The green side of the spectrum is an increase in jobs. Big losses occurred in Downtown and Hickory Hill, along with the Airport Area, Midtown, and parts of East Memphis. Not only that, the big residential areas of Frayser, Raleigh, and Whitehaven saw substantial employment declines.



If the previous map didn't bother you and you are a Memphian, here is the change in employed Memphians from 2002 to 2008. Only four zip codes saw an increase in the number of Memphians employed. A fifth zip code had an increase as well but it was in Collierville.


So what does this mean for Memphis' population? It means people are leaving, lots of them.
With job and population declines, the real estate values within the city will continue to decline. This bad news for tax base of the City and the County since they are so dependent, and becoming more so, on property taxes, both retail and residential. Additionally, our area becomes ever more susceptible to oil price shocks. Our workers drive further and further and our employers are skewed towards fossil fuel heavy distribution jobs. Finally, if oil prices do increase, it may speed population outflow from the city rather than bring people into it. Many jobs migrated east and a rise in fuel cost may promote a tighter clustering to those job opportunities.