Are You Sure about the Future of the Aerotropolis?

Recently, there has been a lot of talk about the rise of the aerotropolis. Since Memphis has the busiest cargo airport in the world, the concept of the aerotropolis could be very important to the growth or decline of the city. I've had serious doubts about the future of the aerotropolis because of my belief in Peak Oil.

Now aside from the Flypaper Theory, I haven't heard any other local blogger talk about Peak Oil. The projections of national and world GDP growth are based on the assumption of cheap, plentiful oil for the foreseeable future. In fact, the FAA is predicting a decline of 1% annually until 2020 in aviation fuel costs. On the other hand, if oil is at or near peak, than there will soon be a decline in oil production and GDP. If GDP actually declines air cargo and transport becomes more and more a luxury. Let's be honest about what FED EX's business model is. Cheap fuel allows materials and goods to be stored on the roads and in the air rather than in warehouses. It is cheaper to ship things as soon as there are ordered than guessing possible demand, building product, storing it in a warehouse and paying people to move it multiple times in hopes that the demand will still be there a few weeks/months later. That business model works well in a pre-Peak Oil world, but in a post-Peak Oil world ummm not so much. The reason I bring this up is because I read a news story about projections of air transportion and cargo if the world is near Peak Oil. Here is the article http://www.energybulletin.net/38464.html and here is some of the main points.

-Hundreds of billions of dollars of investment will be "stranded."
-Some airlines will disappear or may have to be rescued by governments.
-Airport and aviation infrastructure projects will be cancelled.
-Bonds for airports, airport industrial parks, infrastructure projects, etc. will likely default, cascading throughout the financial sector.
-Problems will cascade well beyond the aviation sector.

There is some complicating factors, most importantly, a severe economic recession/depression in the United States and world. (This maybe a distinct possibility in the near future.) A pronounced economic downturn will reduce oil consumption and push forward the effects of Peak Oil and it's awareness. A economic downturn will also be extremely hard on the airlines and air cargo companies.

Either way, I am very doubtful of the rise of the aerotropolis.