Black Swans and Presidential Politics
It's 3:15 central time Friday afternoon.
Politics has made me a cynical and jaded person. In fact, I may be just a bad person. I say this because the second thing (right after that's horrible and hopefully no one gets hurt) I thought of when I heard about the guy with a bomb going into Hillary Clinton's campaign office was she's won the Democratic nomination. It is simple math: Bomb strapped nut job + hostages + campaign headquarters results in no one being able to politically go after Hillary for next 5 weeks and she wins.
It will be really difficult for republicans to appeal to anyone outside their base if this guy is a conservative. The right-wing insane rhetoric against her could easily be blamed(and rightfully so) for creating an irrational political discourse filled with hate that drives rightwing kooks to violence. If the kook is a leftwing nutcase, republicans get to crank up the standard anti-liberal rhetoric, but Hillary stills wins the Democratic nomination.
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