Juggling the Early Voting Numbers

I saw Thaddeus posted the numbers of the early voting. I found them interesting to say the least. The demographic breakdown of registered Memphis voters is 60% black and 40% white. (I don’t know what Other breaks down too) So 75,000 people have already voted. 34,000 were black, 25,000 were white, and 15,000 were other. Going by that 60/40 split, out of 75,000 there should have been 45,000 black folks voting and 30,000 white folks. So black folks are short 11,000 and white folks are short 5,000 votes. This raises the question of “Other”. Memphis is a major destination for immigrants. Are we witnessing the first Memphis municipal election in which naturalized citizens could play a role in electing a mayor? I have heard that there have been successful drives to register Hispanic voters, especially in the Raleigh area. I also think that those registered Hispanics voters are going to have an extremely high turnout. In a race this close though a few thousand votes are important.

But let’s get back to black voters for a second. There are 34,000 black folks who have already voted. Polling data about Herenton has his approval rating at 2 to 1 with black voters. So I’ll go beyond that and say he got 70% of that early vote. That would give him 23,800 black votes. I’m not sure how many white folks voted for Herenton but it is safe to say it wouldn’t be many. Again with Other, I’m not sure but I don’t think he’ll get many of that vote either. So 23,800 of 75,000 is 31.7%. That is right near that 32% the Yacoubian Poll said Herenton had.

As for overall turnout, I might be wrong but I thought that during the election cycle in 2006, people were expecting high turnout in elections because early voting was high. It didn’t seem to work out that way. It could be 50 to 65% of voters have already voted. It is hard to believe that we are going to have a turnout between 190,000 and 225,000 people. A turnout of 150,000 would be pretty good. Right now I think lower turnout helps Chumney and Morris.