More on the Mayor's Race and the Commercial Appeal Polling Data

Here is my take on the Commercial Appeal article in today’s Sunday paper. First, close to 80,000 people have voted already. As noted in my previous post, 18% of the electorate was undecided but waiting for polling data to see who had the best chance of knocking off Herenton. That Yacoubian poll showing Chumney was close to Herenton tipped the scales in her favor. I think most of those people early voting are highly motivated anti-Herenton folks.

I also don’t think Herenton supporters are as motivated. A buddy of mine has a focus group on Chelsea Ave in North Memphis. Technically it’s not a focus group but rather a barber shop. My buddy was there Friday. Normally this is Herenton country. Well, those voters weren’t too motivated in their defense of Herenton’s service as mayor. My friend asked the why he should support Herenton. Only one guy said the Herenton talking points. Those talking points were quickly dismissed and no one else came to Herenton’s defense. My buddy knew he was speaking the truth because the people in the barber shop silently nodded in agreement and chuckled at the Herenton critiques.

That’s a bad sign for Herenton and this ties into the 14% who refuse to answer the Commercial Appeal poll. 75% of those folks were black voters. Even if Herenton got all of them, that only translates into 10.5% of the electorate. So add that to the 24% and you only get 34.5%. Which is the conventional wisdom of what many people thinks he has. (I’ve actually placed a bet saying he will not get 36% or more of the vote.)

I’d like to note one other thing the Commercial Appeal had written earlier this week. Morris only has $11,000 on hand. Chumney has $18,000, and Herenton has close to $200,000. Morris’ campaign did not release polling data showing him in the lead prior to the Yacoubin poll. If they really had proof Morris was leading they would have released it earlier in order to get those undecided voters. They didn’t and they lost momentum from all the free media coverage showing Chumney close to Herenton. I did hear the Morris campaign tried to put out polling data later in the week showing him leading Chumney. It didn’t get much coverage because I had to have somebody tell about this response. I don’t think Morris has a very good get out the vote operation. I think Chumney has a better one. But this could be where Herenton puts up his best defense. Is he willing to spend a king’s ransom and pull out all the stops on GOTV. Buses, free food, etc. Unless he’s willing to spend that $200,000 next week and especially Thursday, I think he’s done and Chumney is the new mayor of Memphis.