Who lost the Mayor Debate? Watch Herenton
I was thinking about the mayor's debates coming up and this was the main idea that popped in my head. The conventional wisdom now is that Herenton is sitting on @32% of the vote, while Chumney and Morris are around 20% and Willingham has about 8%. The debate is importnant because of that swing 20%, so the performance of Chumney and Morris is vital to their candidacy.
How will we know who won the debate? By watching Herenton's reaction. If there is a clear winner in the debate, I believe Herenton will not attack that person, but rather the loser. Herenton must try to maintain that balance in swing voters. The best way to do that is attack the loser. Herenton knows he's radioactive to 65+% of electorate. If Morris wins, Herenton will ignore him and light into Chumney. Voters will think Chumney will have the best shot at Herenton because that's who he is attacking and possibly swing back to her.
On the other hand, if neither candidate shines, Herenton will just keep mocking both of them. But I wonder how wise this tactic is. It seems as though voter turnout will be low. If Herenton would have taken a less provocative tone, I believe the election would be less of a contest. People were just resigned to his re-election and anti-Herenton voters ("haters" as he likes to call them) weren't very motivated. Yet Herenton is poking these voters with a sharp stick. It is possible to piss people off so much they want to go out and vote against you. I'm starting to wonder if lower turnout will affect Herenton precincts more than anti-Herenton precincts.
posted by polar donkey at 1:45 PM
4 Comments:
Morris hasn't come within smelling distance of 20%, and Willingham may be all the way up to 2%.
Chumney, on the other hand, has a high of 32%, while WWh has a high of 29.
Morris has gotten NO traction; he's the black Mike Cody. There are only two people who can win this election, and neither of them are named Herman Morris.
2:58 PM
I like your style.
Subterfuge does seem to be one of Herenton's strengths.
Thanks for the insight.
3:24 PM
Herman Morris is above 20%. I would think if someone would actually do an up-to-date poll, Morris would be at 30% or more.
The last time the CA did a poll was early July when most people only thought of AC and Chumney as alternatives to Herenton. Since then, Morris has been making his rounds and winning support.
If Carol Chumney was a leader, she's be doing a lot better. Unfortunately, she will appeal to a limited number of voters.
Herman Morris has universal appeal, and will be able to run on his experience running a major organization.
Herman Morris is the only candidate who will appeal to both black and white voters.
11:16 AM
I've been waiting and on September 19 your prediction came true. Herenton came forward and announced that the only person who could beat him was Chumney. That's a dead giveaway about the polling Herenton's done. Love it, love it, love it. Go Herman Morris!
1:28 AM
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