The Primary Elections

"The people may be unwise, but they can not be wrong." Voltaire

When your candidate loses, it's hard to listen to even a great thinker like Voltaire. The voters that did show up, knew what they wanted and got it. What's disturbing is how low the turnout was. Talking to a candidate who ran 4 years ago, it seemed like turnout was down 30%. I don't know how much Tennessee Waltz and Ophelia has undermined belief in the local system or how much the general, national trend of downward participation affected voter turnout, but the level of voter participation last night is worrying. Nationally 45 to 50% of populace do not believe democracy works. Locally that rate is even higher. Even war and a stolen election in 2000 couldn't get voter turnout in 2004 above 56%, that's still lower than 1992. I am extremely worried about the 2006 general election. There is no better chance for democrats to retake the House and Senate, but I don't think the Senate is possible and the House is iffy. Not because Dean isn't building a grassroots, but because too many people don't believe and I'm not sure how to fix that. In the history of the world, no republic has lasted 300 years. We're pushing 230.

But back to the local scene. Freedonian and I were talking last night and as he mentioned on his blog, Herenton looks unbeatable (except for one person.). At this stage he has enough money to run for the rest of his life. I'd like to take the time now to thank the wealthy elites of the city that helped bankroll Herenton over the years. You elites got fat off of downtown development at the cost of the rest of city going to shit. But you created a frankenstein. You can't rein in Herenton anymore. He doesn't need you. In fact, his political fortunes actually improve as the city declines and voter apathy increases. Don't believe me, look who won last night. Memphis is trending like Detroit. Everyone is bailing out of the city and now county, but still feeding off its carcass. The median family income for Shelby county fell from $43,000 to $41,000 over the past few years. Unfortunately, the county is in debt up to its eyeballs and doesn't have the resources to try something innovative. As for the city, fuck it's virtually hopeless. Herenton talks about having a $20 million surplus. You did know that the FY2006 capital improvement budget as of last December was $261.9 million and for 5 years the CIP would be $1.9 billion. What is it now fro FY2006, in the $160 million range. Well at least downtown development is over as are repaving roads and investing in any other part of the city. Thanks rich elites, at least you get to see what boat the rest of the city is in. Too bad we can't run like you or build a gated community within the city. At the state level, republicans have taken the Senate and now get to focus on taking the House. They have always had a hard on for making democratic Memphis a wiping boy. Some cheer that the county is trending democratic, but this also means our tax base is eroding, infrastructure declining, and marginalization from the rest of the state. With some republicans still Shelby county, the republicans statewide were still hesitant to punish their own. Not much longer.

Isn't the county trending Democratic awesome! We will not be able to get a payroll tax, will have declining resources from the state, and will be on the downward spiral of debt/property tax increases/flight to surrounding counties. Which brings us right back to Memphis on the Detroit model fast track to oblivion, that ironicly reinforces Herenton's machine. Amazingly, after Tennessee Waltz and Opehlia we've gotten more corrupt, incompetent, and apathetic. Wilburn & French in 06!

What can stop or at least slow this. Ford getting his ass kicked in the senate race. The low voter turnout should be scaring the shit out of Ford. He needs huge turnout in Memphis for even a snowball's chance in hell. That's not going to happen. Perhaps, if Ford actually cared about public service and Memphis, he'd come back and take on Herenton in 2007, but I'm not holding my breath. The other option is Herenton and Chism die of old age.

As for progressives. What has this election shown us. We are impotent. In all due respect to Jackson Baker, progressives got hype-notized. They were believing their own press. There are three get out the vote machines in Shelby County; Ford, Herenton, and the Republicans. Are we welcome in any of those. I know we're all slapping each other on the back that Mulroy won, but take a good look. Mulroy got 1,500 votes. He defeated a guy that went to prison and beat his girlfriend. The Mulroy campaign with all its hard work and even union support was able to turnout the exact same number of voters as the winning republican primary candidate. In addition, would Mulroy even have run if the Ford faction had not come to him. District 5 is majority democrat. Higher turnout helps us. Lower turnout helps the republicans. Some of my friends have pointed out that Mulroy will be the only show on the county commission in August. The unions will turnout and party will get behind him. I am not so sure. Cleo Kirk, endorsed by the Labor Council, is gone and replaced by Chism, who does not show much aversion to republican collaboration and still isn't opposed to privatizing prisons. JW Gibson, a republican, won in district 2 democratic primary.(WTF!) If he doesn't get thrown off the democratic ticket and is forced to run as an independent(I think JW would lose in the general if forced to run as a independent and D. Harris runs as the Democrat), then Mulroy's campaign isn't for all the marbles. The county commission isn't thrown to a clear Democratic majority. Because the democratic party does not have an infrastructure to GOTV, progressives will remain impotent. There simple is no way for progressives to mobilze and leaverage their position. Right now there is no interest in the Shelby County Democratic Party developing a local GOTV infrastructure. That may turn the tide of voter apathy which benefits Herenton and Chism. Don't forget, Joe Young came in third and Kevin Gallagher lost as well. Progressives need to look hard at their actual position in Shelby County politics. If you think the new county commission will have the vision to make a change in the downward spiral of this city and county then you are dillusional. The Memphis area looked into the abyss of corruption, incompetence, and a lack of vision, and rather than turn away, jumped in with both feet. Progressives have a very small window, if not already closed, to actually to do something positive and shape local politics. Right now we are impotent and we really need to come to terms with that.

Remember Voltaire. The people are not wrong. They are telling us the political system is broken and we need to start thinking about how to fix it.