When Tipping Points Are Or Are Not Tipping Points

The phrase which has replaced "thinking out of the box" as the most overused and irritating statement is "tipping point." Blah, blah, blah...Iraq...blah, blah, blah...Tipping Point...blah,blah, blah I feel like the Simpson's dog, Santa's Little Helper, when Bart was trying to teach it how to sit. Just because a plurality of people change their mind on a subject does not make it a tipping point. For government policy and politics, a tipping point which results in change has three parts: First, the size of majority in favor of or opposed to a particular policy. Second, the intensity and urgency of the majority's opinion. Finally, does the majority believe that the government or politician is responsible for addressing the issue.
For example, the issue of outscourcing is an issue that hasn't reached a tipping point because it doesn't meet these three criteria. 78% of Americans strongly feel the government is failing to prevent jobs from moving overseas. But also a majority of americans believe it is unrealistic that companies will keep jobs in America when labor is cheaper elsewhere. So people think outsourcing is inevitable and don't hold the government responsible. Therefore, policy will not change substantially.
So what about Iraq, a sizeable majority don't think the war is going well, but a majority of people don't feel strongly about it. Hurricane Katrina sparked a small fire by showing resources that could have helped the Gulf were in Iraq, but the vast majority of Americans don't feel a direct connection to the war. Finally, people still aren't holding Bush responsible. Iraq is an amorphous mess and no one of stature has stood up and offered an alternative. Therefore, Iraq has not reached a tipping point that would change US policy.
What is a policy in Memphis that could reach a tipping point? Downtown Development. The city of Memphis is bankrupt. The mayor keeps playing with $10 million deficits that pop up here and there. Three chief financial officers have quit over the last year or so, because I don't think they want to be around when the shit hits the fan.
The capital investment part of the city budget is eating up to much money. While downtown development is great for the big developers, corporate recruiters, and 24 to 34 year old highly educated demographic, the rest of city seems to be going to shit. There is festering resentment in large sections of the city which haven't seen capital investments by local government. When it becomes apparent the city finally has gone bankrupt and services get cut across town, of course more so in poor areas, someone will link downtown development with the decrepit condition of the rest of city. Right now this situation is just some clouds on the horizon, but it could turn into a real storm in Memphis.

A further discussion of tipping points and policy are in the September/October issue of Foreign Affairs