2007 Memphis Mayor Race

The first shot was fired in the 2007 Memphis mayoral race this week. Congressman Harold Ford criticized the city’s disaster preparedness. Of course, Mayor Herenton got all pissy about it. I don’t think Herenton’s response was negative because of what was said. Who in their right mind believes this city is prepared for a major disaster. Come on, this city can’t even get an accurate idea of how bankrupt it actually is. What got Herenton’s panties in a wad was that Ford said it.

I have been begging for Ford to drop out of the Senate race because I think a stronger candidate would enter and win, but now I don’t think that will happen. As long as something extraordinary doesn’t happen, I think Coker and his $3 + million war chest will win. I believe Ford realizes this as well. But he may as well stay in the race to build for the future. Ford’s political future on the legislative side will be over. The plan to become a Senator and then get a shot at Vice Presidential Nomination is kaput. But by staying in the Senatorial race, he can build a public profile separate from his uncle’s. That will come in handy in 5 or 9 years from now when he runs for Governor. He will run for Governor after 1 or 2 terms as the successful Mayor of Memphis. This track may set him back a decade for his eventual VP nomination, but he’s young guy.

Ford will run for mayor for family reasons and personal ambition. The Herenton/Chism faction has the most influence on (control of) the Shelby County Democratic Party while the Ford faction has a small representation in it. If Ford leaves his congressional seat open, most likely a Chism backed candidate will win, especially with AC Wharton deciding not to run. In addition, Ophelia Ford is going to get challenged in District 29 in next year’s primary, most likely from Henri Brooks again. The Herenton/Chism faction has the opportunity of jumping from the Local to the State and Federal level, opening new streams of patronage. This would eclipse the Ford faction, setting up a big show down in 2007. Ford would have to run for his own political future but also for the continuation of his family’s political machine.
2007 could be the Clash of the Titans fight to the political death between the Herenton/Chism faction and the Ford faction. The faction that loses will be broken and a vacuum will be created. The victorious faction will then be in a position to fill that vacuum. Shelby County Democratic politics is a zero sum game and this fight has been in the making for several years. So get ready folks 2007 is going to be big and everyone will have to choose sides.